Voter Perceptions of Warmth and Competence to Shape 2024 Presidential Election, New Study Finds

Fidelum Partners and TheFulcrum.us Conduct In-Depth Study on Celebrity and Political Candidate Perceptions leading up to 2024 Election

WAYNE, PA, UNITED STATES, September 18, 2024 /EINPresswire.com/ -- A groundbreaking national research study released today reveals that voter perceptions of candidate warmth, competence, and admiration—not political issues—will be the primary factors driving the outcome of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. The study, conducted by Fidelum Partners, in collaboration with TheFulcrum.us, highlights the significant influence of basic human perceptions over policy positions for both candidates and celebrities.

Key Findings:
1. Warmth and Competence Drive Voting Intentions
The study found that a staggering 83% of the willingness to vote for Kamala Harris, and 82% for Donald Trump, is determined by voter perceptions of their warmth, competence, and admiration. These qualities outweigh political issues, underscoring the perceptual nature of voter decision-making in 2024.

2. Perception Shifts Since 2020
Voter perceptions of President Joe Biden’s warmth and competence have seen a sharp decline of 21% since 2020, likely fueled by his underwhelming debate performance in June. Meanwhile, warmth and competence perceptions of Donald Trump have increased by 9%, while those of Kamala Harris have grown by 7% since 2020.

3. Mutual Adversaries Fuel Voter Support
Harris and Trump, in an intriguing dynamic, effectively “campaign” for one another among opposing voters. Forty-five percent (45%) of the willingness to vote for Trump is driven by negative perceptions of Harris, while 50% of the willingness to vote for Harris is driven by negative perceptions of Trump.

4. Demographics Have Minimal Impact
Despite conventional wisdom, demographic characteristics such as age, income, and education play only a minor role in determining voter support for either Harris or Trump, influencing just 2-3% of voting intentions. However, Harris enjoys stronger support among women (+11 percentage points) and African American voters (+10 percentage points), while Trump holds a slight overall lead (+5 points) in voting intent among men.

5. Social and Political Beliefs Matter
While warmth and competence dominate the election landscape, social and political beliefs related to economic fairness, immigration, and corporate profits are not insignificant. Thirty-six percent (36%) of Trump’s support, and 37% of Harris’ support, stems from such issues.

6. Celebrities in Politics: Admired, But Not Presidential
Among the celebrities and politicians evaluated, Kelly Clarkson and Taylor Swift emerged as the most respected and admired figures. However, despite their admiration, only 13% of likely voters would definitely support Swift for President, and only 12% would back Clarkson. This highlights the limits of admiration for public figures and their political viability.

7. Celebrity Endorsements Hold Limited Sway
Just 11% of U.S. adults strongly agree that endorsements from celebrities they respect significantly influence their views and behavior. However, Taylor Swift’s admirers are more likely to be swayed by celebrity endorsements, with 24% of her fans indicating strong agreement, compared to 16% of Kelly Clarkson’s admirers.

8. Polarized Celebrity Preferences
Harris and Trump supporters show stark contrasts in their preferences for other public figures. Harris supporters express a greater willingness to vote for Bill Gates, Taylor Swift, and LeBron James for President over Donald Trump. Trump supporters would more likely for Elon Musk, Bill Gates, and Mark Zuckerberg for President over Harris.

9. Neck-and-Neck Race, Turnout is Key
The race remains tight, with both Harris and Trump garnering 42% of voting support among likely voters. As a result, the final outcome will hinge on voter turnout, with 81% of Trump supporters and 80% of Harris supporters indicating they definitely plan to vote.

10. Celebrity and Politician Favorability Rankings
The study also asked likely voters how willing they would be to vote for a range of public figures. Former President Barack Obama leads the pack at 45%, while Donald Trump and Kamala Harris tie at 42%. The full list includes notable figures such as Joe Biden (26%), Bernie Sanders (23%), Elon Musk (18%), Taylor Swift (13%), Kelly Clarkson (12%), and Kanye West (8%).

“The 2024 Celebrity & Politician Warmth & Competence Election Study provides a unique look into the foundational human perceptions that drive voting behavior and election outcomes”, said Chris Malone, Founder of Fidelum Partners. “As the campaigns progress, candidates' effectiveness at influencing the warmth and competence perceptions of voters likely be the deciding factor in this closely contested race.”

Study Methodology
From August 27 to September 4, 2024, a nationally representative sample of 1,546 U.S. adults was polled to assess their perceptions of warmth, competence, and admiration for 18 well-known celebrities and politicians, as well as their voting intentions in the upcoming presidential election. The study has a statistical margin of error of +/-2.4%.

The full research report can be immediately accessed at: https://fidelum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-Celebrity-Politician-Warmth-Competence-Study-Report.pdf

For more information about the study and its findings, please contact Chris Malone at chris@fidelum.com or 610-994-4000.

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About Fidelum Partners
Fidelum Partners is a research-based consulting and analytics firm specializing in customer loyalty insights, strategies and results based in Wayne, PA. The firm’s HUMAN Brand^® insights methodology was also utilized in Celebrity & Politician Warmth & Competence studies prior to the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The HUMAN Brand^® insights model was first published in the Journal of Consumer Psychology in 2012 and has since been cited and validated in over 800 peer-reviewed academic publications.

About TheFulcrum.us
TheFulcrum.us is a leading, cross-partisan platform for news and insights focused on U.S. democracy, elections, and governance, providing in-depth analysis and reporting on the key issues shaping the nation.

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Chris Malone
Fidelum Partners
+1 610-994-4000
chris@fidelum.com